Sunday 5 May 2013

Predicted Grades and Developing a Balanced List of Universities


Grade 11 students have completed their exams and are nearing the end of their first year of the rigorous IB program.   Everyone in Grade 11 will be invited to meet their University Advisor in the last few weeks of Term 3 to discuss their university research and go over a checklist for the summer.  Parents who would like to attend this second meeting should ask their child after May 17th for the date of their appointment and have him or her inform the University Advisor that parents would like to join.
Given UWCSEA’s limit of 10 university applications per student, it is not a good strategy to apply indiscriminately. We recommend that students develop a balanced list of universities, with 1-2 in the “reach” category, 2 or more in the “likely” category and the rest in the “match” range.   How do students determine whether a particular university is a reach, match or likely option for them?
In the UK, Canada, Hong Kong and a few other destinations, universities publish the minimum IB requirements for particular courses of study and make offers based on the school’s submission of students’ Predicted Grades, the professional judgment of teachers regarding the grade in each subject a student is likely to achieve as a final result in the IB Diploma Program (this is not the case in the US, as discussed below, or in Australia where students apply after final IB results, or where offers are portfolio or audition-based).  UWCSEA keeps Predicted Grades confidential so that universities can be assured that they are the teachers’ most accurate prediction.  However, Predicted Grades are usually closely aligned with assessed grades, so students should develop their list of reach, match and safety schools based on their assessed grades from their report cards.   The most recent Grade 11 exams are merely one component of the Predicted Grade and should not be considered a proxy for Predicted Grades.
As an example, for an international student to study Mechanical Engineering at Bath University in the UK, an applicant would need a minimum of 36 IB points overall (including core points) with at least a 6 each in HL Mathematics and HL Physics and a 5 in English.  If a student’s most recent assessed grades added up to 34 points with the required grades in these specific subjects, a student should consider Bath a match (assuming he would earn at least two core points from TOK and the Extended Essay).
UK applicants need to pay careful attention to the fee status category they apply in.  Students who are considered residents for home fee status in most cases put themselves in a more competitive applicant pool, particularly in Scotland, where Scottish and EU residents attend university tuition-free.  For example, for those wishing to study Business at the University of Edinburgh, a Korean student would need to earn 34 points whereas a French (EU resident) student would need to earn more like 41 points to enter the same course.  In this case, university websites may have the most accurate information about entry requirements.
In Canada, international and Canadian students are treated the same, and offers of admission made on Predicted Grades are unconditional.   For example, either a Canadian or an Indian student who would like to study a Bachelor of Commerce at McGill University in Canada would need to be predicted at least 35 IB points (not including core points) with either a 5 in HL Mathematics or a 6 in SL Mathematics.  A student who has achieved above these grades in her latest assessment should feel that McGill is likely to make her an offer.   
Because US institutions consider students holistically, it is much more difficult to gauge how likely students are to receive offers from particular colleges and universities.   US universities do not publish minimum grades or scores, but often share averages based on Grade Point Average (GPA) and SAT scores.  GPA doesn’t translate easily to IB scores so is not a reliable source of information.  SAT scores alone should never be considered as minimum entry qualifications.  US universities consider the entire transcript of assessed grades starting in Grade 9 and may put less weight on Predicted Grades, as most American high schools do not predict grades for their students.
It is possible to organize US universities into reach, match and likely categories based on academic qualifications, but harder to predict outcomes, because decisions often hinge on subjective factors, like a student’s ability to write and her teachers opinions of her, as well as factors outside of a student’s control, such as her citizenship, ethnicity, gender and family’s ability to pay.  Based on published statistics regarding averages and data from past applicants at UWCSEA’s Dover campus, University Advisors can help guide students in arranging their US university list into “reach,” “match” and “likely” categories, with the caveat that being academically qualified is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success at many US universities.
Students should give some serious thought to whether they would really be happy to attend every school on their list.  A “likely” choice is not a meaningful one if students are listing it only to appease their University Advisor or their parents.   For each university on their list, students should be able to give a thoughtful answer to the question “Why are you applying to this university?”   The more research a student has done prior to his or her appointment, the more productive our meeting will be.  In the meantime, students are welcome to drop by or email with any questions.

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